The First Saturday in May

 I'm not at the Kentucky Derby.  This is probably a good thing.  I went to bed last night thinking of the contenders.  This year there are probably 15 horses you could make an argument for.  There are probably no horses you can say might not hit the board.  Five sentences and I've used the word probably three times.  I know where I was last night and I remember thinking about the race.  I'm not even sure if I will watch the race at home, in a sports bar, or at the local track and if I will make more than a token bet on the race.

The numbers 4,5,6, and 15 will be featured in my wagers.  In any other race I would be called a chalk player with these horses but they will all fetch a good price.  I just think the speed horses will spit out the bit at the top of the turn and the closers will finish quite well.

I doubt there will be a Triple Crown winner this year.  This is another easy prediction and I doubt I could get anyone that would be so bold as to pick one horse now for that honor.  After the Derby winner is known there will be only one horse with a chance but I'm sure he won't scare off many in the Preakness or the Belmont and even worse it might give a good horse a chance to regroup and skip a race just to knock off the Derby winner.

I can't think of another big race in the USA with a field of 20 good or maybe great horses and with a big field, luck could be the biggest factor of all.

I think Harvey Pack said it best "May the horse be with you and big balloons".

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