And it goes on and on, watching the river run,
I read a book called Innumeracy. In some ways it is a book about choices we make based on the basic misunderstanding of large numbers. Very large numbers are hard enough to understand and mercifully we can escape some consequences of not understanding the risks involved and being one person in a large population with a bit of caution. 1 in 10 is a very likely happening, 1 in 100 less likely but still not out of the ordinary, and you might have to wait a while for a 1 in a 1000 to happen.
Silly me, I play the lottery, bet on horses, and really like rolling the dice. the odds of getting 5 of a kind rolling five dice once is 1/1296.
And so it is.
It is not exactly a charitable action, but I always contribute a dollar to the pot and roll the dice twice hoping for 5 of a kind. It doesn't happen often and there is no guarantee that you will be paid the true odds for your roll because the house takes 50% of the pot.
The game is for entertainment purposes only. Some sharp folks will wait until the pot gets built up, some folks should call Uber for a ride home.
And there is very little reason to not get vaccinated to help protect yourself and others from the worst of COVID 19 in 2022.
I got out 5 dice and started rolling them. I started putting the results on a spreadsheet. The results are inconclusive, maybe I'll report when I've rolled 200 times.
ReplyDeleteThe more trials, the closer you get to expected probability.
ReplyDelete