Kentucky Derby Plus Two Days

A better story than more Bob Baffert drama and court cases.

It was surprising that an 80-1 shot won the 2022 Kentucky Derby.  The connections were thrilled that he got into the race and once you are in the race you have a chance.  That the winner, Rich Strike was claimed for $30,000 and won as a maiden in September of 2021 after a lackluster Maiden Special Weight race at Ellis Park and then got beat in two stakes races by Tawny Port and Tiz the Bomb finishing third in both races. This is hardly a reason for optimism, and if the owners went to look for a softer spot and more black type, nobody would have blinked but it didn't happen like you might think.

 The connections were on the list as also eligible should there be a late scratch and was added to the field after the Ethereal Road dropped out.

Rich Strike got some very good luck as Jockey Sandy Leon was able to get Rich Strike through an opening and was able to flash some late speed and pass the tiring favorites.  The Derby Field of twenty horses is almost certainly the largest field that any three year old will face in the USA and any winner needs some racing luck.  Looking at the speed figures from Equibase, Rich Strike was in form and improving.  The early pace was really fast and it benefited a closer.

I doubt Rich Strike will be the favorite in two weeks, there will be new shooters and no Triple Crown winner this year. 

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