COVID 19 Testing Miami and Elsewhere
May 1st was a beautiful day in Miami, Florida with a high in the low 80's and relatively dry. The Washington Post had some new information about COVID testing per 100,000 people which sent me down a rabbit hole.
The University of Miami did some antibody testing and published the following:
6% of participants tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, which equates to 165,000 Miami-Dade County residents. This figure directly contrasts with testing site data, which indicated that there 10,000 positive cases, suggesting that the actual number of infections is potentially 16.5 times the number of those captured through testing sites and local hospitals alone. Using statistical methods that account for the limitations of the test (sensitivity and specificity), we are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, or between 123,000 and 221,000 residents. These results are similar but not identical to other recent, non-randomized testing programs that have been conducted throughout the United States.
Still safer at home.
The University of Miami did some antibody testing and published the following:
6% of participants tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, which equates to 165,000 Miami-Dade County residents. This figure directly contrasts with testing site data, which indicated that there 10,000 positive cases, suggesting that the actual number of infections is potentially 16.5 times the number of those captured through testing sites and local hospitals alone. Using statistical methods that account for the limitations of the test (sensitivity and specificity), we are 95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, or between 123,000 and 221,000 residents. These results are similar but not identical to other recent, non-randomized testing programs that have been conducted throughout the United States.
As of May 1, 2020 the Florida Health Department reported 12,389 confirmed COVID cases in Miami Dade. Meanwhile the State of Florida reported doing 402,000 tests or about 1955 tests per 100,000 population.
As of May 10, 2020 reported 14,007 confirmed COVID cases in Miami Dade. According to Washington Post there were 503 COVID cases per 100,000 population. The State of Florida reported doing almost 539,000 tests or about 2,616 tests per 100,000 population.
I live in zip code 33143 and according to the Florida Department of Health there have been 306 confirmed COVID cases in zip 33143 which has an estimated population of about 35,000 people. According to zip code mapping, zip code 33143 is painted red because by the numbers there are probably double the number of confirmed cases in my neighborhood( approximately 900 per 100,000) when compared to the county as a whole and adjacent zip codes which have less than 100 cases and lower densities.
Meanwhile Miami Dade County has reopened most parks, reopened marinas and kept beaches closed. There are plans to reopen more nonessential businesses beginning next week. The key factor will be maintaining social distancing and limiting groups from getting together. South Pointe Park on Miami Beach was shut down almost immediately after opening because folks didn't wear masks and flocked to the park making social distancing problematic at best.
Still safer at home.
People in the US aren’t just getting tested for fun — they’re actually getting sick and dying. This is reflected not only in the fact that the US has endured more than double the number of deaths as the second-hardest-hit country (more than 85,000, followed by the UK with more than 34,000), but also that the US is 13th in the world when it comes to deaths per million people. The high case number here correlates with high death numbers, not just high testing numbers.
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